08
Feb
13

State of the Housing Market – McLean, VA 22102 – Quarter End 12/31/12

State of the Housing Market – McLean, VA 22102

Quarter End 12/31/12

There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.” Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year.  However, broad generalizations such as:  “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Viginia.  In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.

This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market.  Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.

Chart (2) and Table (2) compare the number of active listings (the supply) to the number of properties sold or under contract (the demand) in the local real estate markets of McLean (zip code 22102) by price range for the period from 7/1/12-12/31/12.  The following chart depicts the relationship between supply, demand and price.

Supply_and_demand

Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of three ways:

Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) vs. Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)

22102 chart 70112-123112

Table 2.
Market  Analysis for Zip Code 22102 (7/1/12 – 12/31/12)
Solds + Expireds +
Contracts Withdrawns
Type of (7/1/12- Active (7/1/12-
List Price Range Market 12/31/12) Listings Difference 12/31/12)
$700,000-$899,999 Sellers’ 31 4 27 or 87.10% 3
$900,000-$1,199,999 Sellers’ 25 5 20 or 80.00% 2
$1,200,000-$1,499,999 Sellers’ 17 5 12 or 70.59% 10
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 Sellers’ 21 6 15 or 71.43% 8
$2,000,000-$2,499,999 Buyers’ 3 6 -3 or -100.00% 7
$2,500,000-$2,999,999 Buyers’ 5 13 -8 or -160.00% 2
$3,000,000+ Buyers’ 7 20 -13 or -185.71% 11
Summary of Zip Code 22102
  • $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market.  The number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is more than seven times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings).  If the 3 property listings that expired or were withdrawn went back on the market, the number of sold properties plus under contract properties would still be more than 4 times the number of active listings.
  • $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market.  The number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is five times the number of homes currently on the market.  If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there are still more than 3 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings.
  • $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market.  The number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of under contract listings is more than 3 times the number of homes for sale.  If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to close to a balanced market.
  • $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Sellers’ Market.  There is more than four times the number of homes for sale as number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus under contract homes.  If you factor in the number of properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings allowed to expire, this price range is still a sellers’ market.
  • $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market.  The number of properties for sales is twice the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract.  If you factor in the 7 properties listings that were withdrawn from the market or expired, this price range becomes an even stronger buyers’ market.
  • $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market.  The number of homes listed for sale is more than 2 times the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract.  If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, the number of homes on the market would be 3 times the number of sold homes combined with the number of properties under contract and the price range would become a stronger buyers’ market.
  • $3,000,000 and up – Buyers’ Market.  The number of homes currently listed for sale is almost 3 times the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract.  If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would be more than 4 times the number of homes on the market as sold homes plus the number of properties under contract and it would be a stronger buyers’ market.

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“it’s not your father’s real estate market anymore” ®

Tania Hosmer

Tania grew up in Northern Virginia and is a life long resident of the area. She has lived in the Reserve in McLean, Virginia with her husband and 2 children since 2001. Tania and her husband Jim purchased their lot in Section 1 of the Reserve in June of 1999 and built their home in the following 18 months. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from Mary Washington College and an MBA in Finance from The George Washington University. Tania began her real estate career over 20 years ago. In addition to real estate sales, her experience includes managing residential renovation projects in the greater Washington area, planning and overseeing new residential construction and managing rental properties. After completing her MBA in 1996, she joined CIG International (a Washington-based residential real estate investment firm) as Vice President where she conducted extensive due diligence investigations of real estate investment opportunities and oversaw ongoing investment projects. Tania became a residential real estate agent in 2006.

Tania’s Contact Information

Tania Hosmer
Keller Williams Realty
6820 Elm Street
McLean, Virignia 22101
TaniaHosmer.com
TaniaHosmer@gmail.com
703-403-8225

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Disclaimer

If your home is currently listed with another broker, this is not intended as a solicitation of that listing.

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